President Donald Trump鈥檚 unprecedented decision to impose tariffs on goods imported from most countries could lead to higher prices for schools on everything from paper and lumber to laptops and tablets. The stock market declines sparked by the tariffs could hurt retirement plan funds that 糖心动漫vlog rely on. And the levies could with devastating fiscal consequences for school districts and the broader public, economists say.
But Trump鈥檚 disorienting rollout and rapidly shifting policy priorities have even the sharpest economists puzzled about the extent of the short- and long-term fallout鈥攍eaving school district leaders with yet another layer of uncertainty on top of an already-turbulent budget season.
Even the 90-day pause Trump announced April 9 for many of the steepest tariffs is offering little comfort.
鈥淚 don鈥檛 know what to count on, what not to count on,鈥� said Cheryl Jordan, superintendent of the 10,400-student Milpitas district in northern California. 鈥淚鈥檓 just taking the most conservative course, which is the tariffs are going to be there, 鈥� so we need to be prepared and plan for the worst-case scenario regardless.鈥�
A wide range of goods schools need鈥攃lassroom supplies, textbooks, vehicles, technology tools, food, and more鈥攃ould come with higher prices if the Trump tariffs stick around. That鈥檚 on top of price increases in recent years caused by inflation.
The Evanston, Ill., school district reported this week that its furniture vendors have announced a 25 percent cost increase to take effect at the end of the month, on top of a 5 or 6 percent year-over-year increase the district was already contending with, the reported. Another Illinois district shrunk its order of projectors from 100 to 75 this week after hearing that the vendor planned to raise prices due to tariffs, .
Jordan鈥檚 district has the third phase of a construction project in the works. The team is looking to start purchasing some of the materials now, 鈥渆ven before the ground is broken, just to be able to protect us against rising prices of materials,鈥� she said.
It鈥檚 unclear whether those price increases will hold if Trump keeps changing his approach to tariffs. But if construction costs continue to spike significantly, some districts could see projects exceed the costs of bonds their voters had approved or their initial project budgets.
There has been plenty of change since Trump鈥檚 initial tariffs announcement
After months of teasing and years of theorizing about the potential for tariffs to revive American manufacturing, Trump on April 2 , including 34 percent on China, 20 percent on the European Union, and 46 percent on Vietnam. The announcement sent the U.S. .
Since then, Trump has claimed鈥攚ithout listing them鈥攖hat . He walked back most of the steeper tariffs on April 9, but has twice ratcheted China鈥檚 tariff upward since then.
As of April 11, Trump has , , and .
He has and to assert the authority to impose tariffs without approval from Congress. So far, lawmakers haven鈥檛 moved aggressively to walk back Trump鈥檚 tariff power, even as some鈥攊ncluding fellow Republicans鈥攈ave grumbled about the and .
School districts are already experiencing the fallout from tariffs
Ripple effects from tariffs Trump imposed earlier this year on Canada, China, and Mexico had already begun playing out before the current round of tariffs took hold.
The Pender County school district in North Carolina, for instance, had to spend more than school board members had hoped to purchase 2,000 urgently needed laptops in mid-March after two companies cited tariff uncertainty and waffled on pricing, .
Rick Gay, executive director of business services for the 80,000-student Fort Bend school district in Texas, has worked on purchasing in school districts for three decades. Some district leaders have contacted him in recent weeks asking how to respond to a technology vendor seeking permission to raise prices and citing tariffs as the justification鈥攊n some cases, even before Trump finalized his long-teased tariff plans.
鈥淚 have cautioned people to push back very hard on any requests for price increases,鈥� Gay said.
He sees parallels to the early days of the pandemic, when companies were raising prices as supply-chain disruptions piled up. But for some products, the ripple effects from tariffs .
And in some cases, the imposition of tariffs shouldn鈥檛 affect manufacturers鈥� or distributors鈥� costs at all. Texas, for instance, . Food that isn鈥檛 imported from other countries shouldn鈥檛 be affected by tariffs, Gay said.
Gay advises district leaders to insist that companies demonstrate specific reasons why their costs are higher and prices need to go up accordingly. Contracts with vendors should contain strong language that prevents companies from raising prices except in the event of 鈥渁cts of God鈥� like hurricanes, he said.
He also typically includes in contracts a cap on the amount the vendor can increase the cost鈥�"either the [Consumer Price Index] or 3 percent, whichever is lower.鈥�
Vendors鈥� 鈥渋nability to figure out the market doesn鈥檛 mean that it increases my cost to do business,鈥� Gay said.
Tariffs would have wide-reaching affects beyond imported goods
Schools wouldn鈥檛 just face higher costs if tariffs persist. State revenue for schools could take a hit if the economy sinks into a prolonged recession.
The two main sources of state revenue for schools would both be at risk, experts told Education Week. Income tax collections would droop as wages stagnate and unemployment rises. Consumers would then have less money to spend on goods, depressing sales tax revenue as well.
Pension funds鈥�already underfunded by billions of dollars鈥攚ould be more likely to fall short of actuarial projections, leaving states to either pay bigger chunks of retirement obligations themselves, or defer those costs to local districts.
Alabama鈥檚 public pension investments, for instance, lost $1 billion in one day when Trump first announced the new tariffs, when the stock market plummeted to its lowest levels since the pandemic began.
鈥淲hen you dump over the apple cart, it鈥檚 totally expected to have major ramifications,鈥� said David Bronner, CEO of the state pension system, in a .
The nation鈥檚 top 25 pension funds for state and local employees鈥攎ost of which include school district workers鈥攍ost a combined $169 billion between April 3 and 8, according to an published April 9 by the Equable Institute, a nonprofit pension research firm.
Meanwhile, collective bargaining agreements between schools and their employee unions that mandate annual salary increases could limit the wiggle room schools would have to trim budgets if they unexpectedly have less funding, said Jonathan Travers, president and managing partner of consulting at Education Resource Strategies, a firm that helps school districts with finance issues.
鈥淵ou just locked yourself in, so now you only have so much agency. You鈥檝e got to figure out how to pay for that,鈥� Travers said.
Depending on the scale of a recession, some districts could be forced to reopen those agreements, prompting tense negotiations with crucial staff groups.
To some extent, school district leaders have no choice but to be prepared for volatile times like these because of the nature of their operations, said Joshua Hyman, an associate professor of economics at Amherst College who studies education finance.
鈥淯nlike many firms or businesses, they can鈥檛 control their own prices, they can鈥檛 generate revenue. There鈥檚 only so much you can make from a big bake sale,鈥� Hyman said. 鈥淭hey鈥檙e at the whim of these economic forces.鈥�
Even in the absence of an economic downturn so far, the rapidly changing financial environment has infused fresh uncertainty into the mix, adding to the stress of districts and their staff, which trickles down to the classroom, said Jordan, the superintendent in California.
鈥淲hen teachers are feeling anxious about the future, they might not have as much patience as they would normally, they may be less energized to create really dynamic lessons, and it greatly depletes their sense of value,鈥� Jordan said. 鈥淚t鈥檚 becoming very difficult for teachers overall, and tariffs just add to that whole sense of uncertainty.鈥�
