In snow-capped Summit County, Colo., home to some of Colorado鈥檚 best skiing, here鈥檚 one way to gauge just how difficult the Omicron variant is making it to keep schools open: Just look at the lift hills.
Lines to use them are snaking down into town, because there鈥檚 a shortage of lift operators and too many of them are currently ill with COVID-19. Those factors, says Kate Hudnut, the district鈥檚 school board president, are the same ones facing the district鈥檚 schools, where dozens of staff are quarantining from the surge and substitutes are hard to find.
鈥淪taffing is going to make or break us,鈥� Hudnut said. 鈥淵ou can only shuffle your classes so much until it鈥檚 just not safe; the kids have to be supervised. We鈥檙e not looking to put them all in the cafeteria, because this is not day care. And we can cancel a P.E. class, but keep in mind that the kids who were in P.E. need to go somewhere, too.鈥�
As the Omicron wave crashes over the country, districts are once again being forced to consider remote learning鈥攂ut this time, as in Summit County, some are taking a much more surgical approach, opting to shutter just a handful of buildings if possible.
Many superintendents agree with the general, if not universal, consensus that in-person learning is far superior for students鈥� academic and socialization needs, and should be preserved at all costs.
What鈥檚 getting in the way, they say, is pure logistics.
In some schools, up to 30 percent of staff are out sick
Most K-12 schools remain open for in-person learning. As of Jan. 7, about 3,600 schools鈥攐r fewer than 3 percent鈥攚ere closed, that tracks school closings and disruptions.
And while much media attention has fixated on examples of schools closing pre-emptively鈥擝altimore County, Md.; Newark N.J.; Milwaukee, and Detroit are among some examples鈥攐r in response to labor strife, as in Chicago, in many cases it鈥檚 happening only when district leaders can鈥檛 make the staffing math work anymore.
The Summit County district鈥檚 experience shows how even a district that鈥檚 worked hard to make in-person learning a priority can bump up against the reality of staff shortages.
After the initial April 2020 shutdown, leaders prioritized getting students back into classrooms. For the 2020-21 school year, districts used a hybrid plan that kept elementary schoolers in-person four days a week; by the beginning of the 2021-22 school year, it had reverted back to a regular schedule, and had spent some of its federal school COVID relief funds upgrading ventilation systems and taking other steps to keep schools going.
Omicron has had other ideas. Summit County has one of the highest COVID case rates in the nation鈥攊t鈥檚 currently at about 325 new cases per 100,000 residents over a 14-day average, according to the New York Times. That鈥檚 probably because the tourist-dependent county receives an influx of visitors from all over the country, some of whom don鈥檛 or won鈥檛 wear masks.
And while other countries have shuttered bars and entertainment venues, U.S. leaders have generally done the reverse, including in Summit County, where local jobs are dependent on tourism.
At the beginning of January, U.S. Secretary of Education Miguel Cardona said some districts would have 鈥渂umps鈥� reopening, with 5 percent to 10 percent of their staff calling in sick. The actual figure is much higher in Summit County and in other places.
鈥淥ur threshold is that we can have 15 or 20 percent out and still make a go out of it,鈥� Hudnut said. 鈥淲e have administrators in classrooms subbing; we have central office pitching in in the schools.鈥�
But by last Wednesday, two of the district鈥檚 nine schools had tipped over that threshold. The district moved to an asynchronous learning day on Thursday in those two schools so teachers had a chance to make lesson plans, and then launched synchronous remote learning through January 11鈥攁 five-day period to match the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention鈥檚 most recent guidance for quarantining.
Other school systems are bracing for similar eventualities, trying to forewarn parents that school closing decisions will be made on a case-by-case basis as staffing numbers come in each evening.
鈥淲e want to stay open for in-person instruction as much as possible. And, we are struggling right now,鈥� wrote Jeremy Chiappetta, the CEO and superintendent of a small network of charter schools in Rhode Island, in an email last week to families. 鈥淲e have had targeted classroom closures throughout the pandemic, but this moment truly feels different. It may not be possible to keep our schools open this coming week based on the severity of the current outbreak.鈥�
In one school, he wrote, about 27 percent of staffers were out, in addition to the school鈥檚 principal and dean.
Stories from across the country point to other limitations that are shaping school decisions. The Stonington, Conn., schools didn鈥檛 have enough bus drivers to make regular stops last week; it cancelled two school days, one of which will be treated as a snow day and the other swapped out for a teacher professional development day, the local newspaper reported.
The lack of substitute teachers has tied other districts鈥� hands.
鈥淯nfortunately, we鈥檙e experiencing like 20 percent to 50 percent fill rates at best鈥� when trying to find substitutes, said Chris Felmlee, the superintendent for the 2,000-student Southern Boone district, in Ashland, Mo., where up to 30 percent of both students and teachers in some schools have fallen ill. The district moved to remote learning for two days of classes last week in its four schools.
鈥淭here鈥檚 not a lot of reliability right now because there is such a dire sub shortage, and we鈥檙e definitely using them before we have to pull teachers out. But typically we鈥檙e having to reassign teachers on a case-by-case basis based on our data,鈥� Felmlee said.
And some states passed laws in the fall that will make long-term closures less of an option.
The Jefferson County, Ky., schools on Jan. 10 announced that the district will use four 鈥渘ontraditional instructional days鈥� this week, reverting to remote learning in response to the surge. But state law permits only 10 of those, which means that it will have less flexibility if the surge doesn鈥檛 wane soon.
Even in in-person schools, instruction is suffering
Even though they largely prefer the quality of in-person learning, district leaders also point out that keeping schools open on short staff can mean compromising the integrity of teaching and learning.
When a teacher goes out sick and a substitute can鈥檛 be found, that usually means another teacher or staffer who may not have subject expertise has to step in. Sometimes the two classes have to be 鈥渃ollapsed鈥� together鈥攖o use the lingo of educational administrators鈥攔esulting in much larger class sizes.
To avoid that option, the Southern Boone district has tapped instructional support teachers. But that has a cost, too.
鈥淲hat we typically do in an effort to keep the classrooms together, we鈥檒l pull our special teachers鈥攚ho help with students who need additional reading and math鈥攖o use as subs,鈥� said Felmlee. 鈥淭he bad part of that is that the kids who need the most help aren鈥檛 getting the services they need because we鈥檙e just trying to keep the schools open.鈥�
Many teachers have struggled to plan lessons, too, wondering whether to move forward with new content when so many students are absent鈥攕ome of them sick with COVID, others kept at home by fearful or distrustful parents.
There are some encouraging signs that, while the Omicron variant is far more contagious, the wave of infections tends to peak rapidly and fall off. Case rates , two places hard-hit by Omicron early on.
District school leaders hope so.
鈥淚鈥檓 hopeful that in two to three weeks we鈥檒l be out of this and we鈥檒l be back on our feet,鈥� said Hudnut. 鈥淏ut who knows?鈥�
